Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election initially fueled assumptions—tied to memories of oil prices crashing below zero during his first term—that energy markets were set to sink again. Oil prices did stumble briefly, but recent price action flips the script, showing a sharp rebound off the lows.

The real story, though, is unfolding in the Canadian energy patch, where unexpected shifts and technical signals are rewriting the playbook. Many expected Mark Carney’s leadership to give Canadian energy the kiss of death, but his bold vision to make Canada an energy superpower—backed by pipeline approval talks—has sparked a wave of optimism.

This pivot aligns with surging institutional activity and insider buying, as flagged in our unusual activity reports. Most striking are the massive technical chart patterns emerging in key Canadian energy stocks. These multi-year bases, poised for breakouts to new highs, live by the rule: the bigger the base, the higher the space. With no overhead resistance, these setups signal potential for explosive momentum.

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Catalysts—Carney’s vision, institutional firepower, and insider conviction—stack up to boost the probability of breakout. As I tell my clients, a chart pattern alone won’t cut it; you need reasons to back it. These signals are stacking up.

Once you understand the expected outcome of a technical setup, you can create a plan—not only to define downside risk if the setup fails, but to ride momentum if the breakout comes.

CNQ.TO – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

Canadian Natural Resources was first highlighted in our Daily Setups report after we flagged a 406% quarter-over-quarter spike in hedge fund ownership. Now, the price is attempting to break out of a multi-month consolidation pattern, accompanied by rising daily volume and some curious opening volume spikes. A breakout above horizontal resistance—paired with the PPO crossing back above zero—would confirm momentum and signal a potential continuation of the uptrend.  

HWX.TO – Headwater Exploration Inc.

Headwater Exploration is positioning itself on the right side of a multi-month base, with price now pressing up against horizontal resistance. The large volume-by-price bar on the left side of the chart suggests major accumulation during the construction of this pattern. Watch for potential breakout signals as the setup continues to develop.  

NVA.TO – NuVista Energy Ltd.

NuVista Energy is a perfect example of “the bigger the base, the higher the space.” We first flagged the setup in our daily report as price action was pressing against the upper trendline. Since then, it’s broken out and surged nearly 6% this week, confirming the move and adding strength to the pattern.  

SU.TO – Suncor Energy, Inc.

Suncor Energy is consolidating in the form of a multi-month continuation pattern, following a successful retest of its recent breakout line. The weekly PPO has crossed bullish as price action sets up just below horizontal resistance at the upper trendline. Monitor for potential breakout signals that could suggest a continuation of the broader uptrend.  

TOU.TO – Tourmaline Oil Corp.

Tourmaline Oil is building a massive multi-year ascending triangle continuation pattern. The weekly PPO is curling higher off the zero line, while large volume-by-price bars on the left side of the chart suggest major accumulation throughout the base. As price action pushes deeper into the apex of the pattern, it creates tension akin to a coiled spring, often leading to an explosive resolution once a directional breakout occurs.  

TPZ.TO – Topaz Energy Corp.

Topaz Energy appears to be breaking out from a giant bullish flag continuation pattern on the weekly chart, with the PPO momentum indicator setting up just below the zero line. A breakout in the PPO above zero would signal a shift to positive momentum and support the case for continued upside.  

TVE.TO – Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.

Tamarack Valley Energy appears to be setting up just below horizontal resistance on the right side of a significant multi-year consolidation pattern. The PPO momentum indicator is attempting to cross above the zero line, signaling a shift toward positive momentum. Monitor for continued strength, which could lead to a breakout and a potential continuation of the uptrend that began off the 2020 low.

The Canadian energy space continues to quietly build strength beneath the surface, with major names forming powerful continuation patterns backed by volume, momentum shifts, and renewed institutional interest. These aren’t random moves—they’re technical structures with real catalysts forming behind them.

Many of the names featured here were first flagged on our momentum scans and highlighted in the daily reports on our website. From unusual options activity to insider buying and hedge fund flows, these setups often start with subtle signals before the charts confirm. As sentiment shifts and capital rotates, it’s the early setups that offer the best roadmap.

We’ll continue tracking these developments and sharing the ones that stand out, just as we always do. Our scanner has also been picking up on Canadian energy service names as they curl higher off their lows—another group to keep an eye on.