One of the biggest mistakes traders make is treating a trade as a prediction rather than a thesis.
A thesis is simply your reason for taking the trade. As long as the market continues to support that idea, you stay with it. The moment the market proves your thesis wrong, you move on.
A recent example was BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).
The bullish thesis was straightforward. The stock was showing exceptional relative strength while benefiting from growing institutional interest in Ethereum through its treasury strategy. As long as price continued respecting key support levels and the trend remained intact, the bullish thesis remained valid.
Now compare that to Ethereum.
The bullish setup was a classic Bollinger Band squeeze developing above the 50-day moving average. A Bollinger Band squeeze often precedes a significant expansion in price, and with Ethereum holding above the 50-day moving average, the technical evidence supported a bullish outlook.
Then the market changed.
Once Ethereum broke below the 50-day moving average, the original thesis no longer existed.
That wasn’t a reason to hope.
It wasn’t a reason to argue with the market.
It was simply the market saying the original idea was no longer valid.
At that point, a properly placed stop loss should have been triggered. For traders who recognized the change in market structure, the breakdown also created an opportunity to reverse their bias and trade the move to the downside.
This is exactly why SetYourStop exists.
The purpose of our research is not to tell people what to think. It’s to provide the information, identify the opportunity, explain the thesis, and let each trader decide how to use that information based on their own experience, strategy, and risk tolerance.
A setup can look incredibly bullish today and become completely bearish tomorrow. Markets are constantly evolving, and successful traders evolve with them. The market doesn’t care about our opinions, our predictions, or what we want to happen. It only cares about price.
That’s also why, during presentations and educational videos, I rarely make predictions.
Anything I believe today can be completely negated tomorrow.
If I make a bold prediction and then refuse to change my opinion when the chart changes, I’m no longer following the market—I’m following my ego.
The best traders don’t fall in love with a stock, a sector, or a thesis. They fall in love with the process.
When the evidence changes, they change.
Regardless of what I think or feel, I have to react to what the chart is actually doing, not what I want it to do. That’s why I don’t tell subscribers exactly when to buy, exactly when to sell, or exactly where to place their stop. Every trader has a different account size, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.
Instead, SetYourStop provides the research, highlights the opportunities, and identifies the levels that matter. From there, each trader can apply the information in a way that fits their own trading style.
No one is right 100% of the time.
The goal isn’t to predict every move correctly. The goal is to recognize when your thesis is no longer valid, protect your capital, and be ready for the next opportunity.
That’s what trading is all about.
