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SYS Daily Report – Weekend Edition
As the Market Breaks Down, Bitcoin Holds the Line: What Is It Trying to Tell Us?
Tariffs Spark Panic Selling Across U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks suffered their most punishing two-day decline in history, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a broad-based selloff across global financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2,231 points on Friday alone, a 5.5% drop that confirmed a correction, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.8%, officially entering a bear market after tumbling more than 20% below its December peak. The S&P 500 wasn’t spared, shedding 6%, marking its worst daily decline since 2020, and ending the week down 9.1%.
Investors were stunned after China retaliated against the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs by imposing 34% tariffs on all U.S. imports, beginning April 10. This tit-for-tat escalation raised fears of a prolonged trade war that could severely damage global economic growth. According to preliminary estimates, the sharp selloff erased a staggering $6.6 trillion in U.S. market capitalization over just two trading sessions—the largest two-day wipeout on record.
As highlighted in last weekend’s report, the potential for a waterfall event—should price action fail to hold its current support level—has now come to fruition.
“A key factor to watch here is the behavior of the PPO momentum indicator, which is pressing up against underside resistance. Historically, since 2023, every major bottom has bounced off this level—but this time, the indicator is failing to break through, a clear shift in character that many appear to be overlooking. If PPO continues to fail at this resistance and price breaks below key support, it could trigger a waterfall-style decline.”
SPY – Daily Chart (PPO) – From the Weekend Report
SPY – Daily Chart (PPO) – Follow-Up on Today’s Close
Heading into next week, one curious development is the behavior of Bitcoin. While the stock market crumbled, Bitcoin held its lower Bollinger Band, demonstrating relative strength. This raises several questions. Is Bitcoin signaling what comes next? Could this imply the return of the money printer going brrrrr? Watch the setup closely to see if price action can begin breaking out above the upper trendline of the pattern.
Bitcoin – Daily Chart
Another notable observation is the growing number of comparisons between gold and the S&P 500. While that chart has become increasingly obvious, one chart that hasn’t received as much attention is Bitcoin versus the NASDAQ. Interestingly, this ratio is approaching a new all-time high breakout.
Bitcoin vs. the Nasdaq
Adding to the intrigue, in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, the Treasury Secretary made it clear that this is not a macro issue—it’s a Magnificent Seven issue. This distinction is important. It’s not about the tech sector broadly, but rather a concentrated bubble within the most overvalued names. If Bitcoin—often considered a “risk-on” asset—breaks out to new highs versus the NASDAQ, it could be signaling a rotation into sound money and away from inflated, high-growth tech stocks.
Watch the video below—he outlines exactly what they are doing and trying to achieve, and it’s critical to understand this context heading into the weeks ahead.
Still, trying to call a bottom remains a gamble, even as markets approach oversold levels. The key to watch now is whether countries begin negotiating with Trump to reduce tariffs, or—as mentioned in previous notes—if global politicians at risk of losing power to populist movements instead use this moment to regain control. In Canada, for instance, Mark Carney appears to be leveraging media narratives and public sentiment against Trump to build influence. Similarly, in France, authorities have blocked the opposition leader expected to win the next election from running for five years—echoing strategies used against Trump.
Rather than negotiating, it’s becoming clear that many global leaders are using Trump as a political tool to hold onto power in the face of growing opposition.
The other wildcard is if the Fed or Treasury steps in to add liquidity—this could finally signal a market bottom.
But we have to remember not to get distracted. As mentioned in previous notes, Trump has made it clear what he’s trying to achieve. But some of the less obvious goals he’s already accomplished through these tariffs include:
– Crushing the 10-year Treasury yield
– Weakening the U.S. dollar
– Bringing down the price of energy
Before he can launch his true growth strategy of “Making America Great Again,” he has to crush inflation. When I’ve discussed this with colleagues, their response is often: “But tariffs cause inflation.” And I could be wrong—this is just thinking out loud—but if he does trigger a recession, the increased cost of tariffs might actually lead to less consumer spending, especially as market wealth declines and purchasing power erodes. Energy is getting crushed as well. All of this combines to help suppress the inflationary pressures that were unleashed during the COVID-19 era. The sharp declines in crude oil, gold, silver, copper, and other industrial commodities, along with the broad market selloff and flight to Treasurys, are classic deflationary signals that suggest demand is deteriorating quickly. If this trend persists, it could accelerate disinflation and bring inflation closer to the Federal Reserve’s target.
That said, this outcome is far from certain. A growing number of strategists and economists are warning about stagflation—a scenario marked by stagnant growth paired with persistent inflation. Rising tariffs, supply chain distortions, and tightening financial conditions could keep upward pressure on prices even as economic activity slows. While the market appears to be leaning toward a disinflationary interpretation, the risk of stagflation remains a legitimate and concerning alternative.
And Trump has said over and over again: we need short-term pain for long-term gain. Once inflation drops to levels no one thought possible, then he can start pushing his growth plan. These are just thoughts, but for me, it seems to be playing out right in front of us. And when people say, “But tariffs cause inflation,” the reality is that he’s already crushed the 10-year yield, weakened the dollar, and brought down energy prices—faster than anyone expected.
If countries eventually come to the negotiating table—and right now there seems to be no alternative—then tariffs can be reduced or removed, which would align with lower Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and falling inflation. That scenario would finally allow the Fed to cut rates and fire up the money printer again, just as Trump begins to roll out his growth policy. Right now, we’re experiencing the short-term pain he warned was coming.
One also has to remember that the U.S. needs to roll over and refinance its debt, and everything achieved above—lower yields, a weaker dollar, and falling inflation—supports that objective.
Many are now predicting a recession. A recession would help bring inflation down—but remember, recessions usually only become obvious when the market is already climbing out the other side, because the indicators are lagging. By the time it’s clear, ideally, inflation will be under control and the stage will be set for the beginning of the next bull market.
With that said, don’t try to guess the bottom—just react to what’s in front of you.
With that being said, back to the technicals—the monthly MACD indicators we’ve been monitoring continue to perform their bearish cross and move lower. Today, price action took out the middle Bollinger Band, raising the million-dollar question: Does the PPO need to fully reset, and do the indices need to retest the recent breakout level? If so, there could potentially be a pocket of air down to the next key horizontal support level.
The issue with sell-offs and bear markets is that they happen quickly and violently. There’s also volatile back-and-forth action that can offer short-term trading opportunities, whether through tactical shorting strategies or buying sharp rebounds that often form bearish flags.
After today, markets are extremely stretched, but without any solid catalyst materializing—as discussed above—it’s still unclear when a true bottom might form, even though there are signs of capitulation with the VIX spiking. The next key question is: Does this price action attempt to rebound here, or does it continue straight down to the next level of support (as shown on the two charts below), allowing the MACD to fully reset again before the market can move higher?
Now might be a time to consider closing out any hedges, but it may still be too early to start buying, as one of the major variables—whether it be tariffs, liquidity measures, or pro-growth policy from the administration (tax cuts and deregulation)—may need to come into play before a durable bottom can form.
SPY – Monthly Chart (MACD)
QQQ – Monthly Chart (MACD)
Volatility Spikes as Bonds Rally
The surge in market volatility was reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which soared to 41, its highest level since the early stages of the pandemic. Investors rushed into Treasurys amid rising fears of stagflation and global recession. The 10-year yield fell 26 basis points on the week, closing at 3.99% after touching an intraday low of 3.89%—its lowest since October 2023. The 2-year yield also dropped to 3.67%, showing flattening across the curve. With JPMorgan forecasting rate cuts at every Fed meeting through January, the bond market is signaling severe economic contraction ahead.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell added to investor unease, noting that the tariffs would likely fuel higher prices and slower economic growth. His comments suggested no immediate response from the Federal Reserve, though markets are now aggressively pricing in rate cuts beginning in June. JPMorgan analysts hiked their forecast for a global recession to 60%, while also revising their U.S. GDP outlook for Q4 to a 0.3% contraction.
10-Year US Treasury Yield
Market Leaders Crushed as Selling Deepens
Selling pressure was widespread and indiscriminate. Decliners outpaced advancers 10-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 5-to-1 on the Nasdaq, as growth, tech, and defensive stocks alike came under fire. The so-called Magnificent Seven, tracked by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), are now down 24% year-to-date.
Among sector ETFs, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) plunged 14.8%, dragged lower by major components Nvidia (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 13.9%, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) lost 10.2% as names like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were hit hard.
Even defensive havens buckled under pressure. Utilities, health care, and insurers—traditionally viewed as safe during turmoil—recorded steep declines. Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) dropped 6.8%, closing below its 50-day moving average. However, some slivers of strength appeared in homebuilders, clothing makers, and office supply retailers, which benefited modestly from falling interest rates and Trump’s comment that Vietnam was willing to cut its tariffs to zero.
The Red-Light/Green-Light Breadth System
The S&P 500 suffered a 6% drop on Friday, ending the week down 9.1%—its worst since March 2020. The index has now closed nearly 12% beneath its 200-day moving average, a technical breakdown that underscores the shift from pullback to full-scale correction. With only 14 stocks rising across the entire S&P on Friday and 28 dropping 10% or more, this is no longer isolated weakness—it’s institutional selling on a massive scale. The next major support level lies at the October lows, and without a meaningful follow-through day, further downside remains likely.
S&P 500 – Daily Chart
The Nasdaq Composite plunged 5.8% on Friday and has now dropped over 20% from its December high, firmly entering bear market territory. The index now trades more than 16% below its declining 50-day moving average, while growth ETFs like the Innovator IBD 50 (FFTY) and ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 7.6% and 13.9% respectively. This is a classic breakdown of tech leadership, signaling not just cyclical rotation but structural damage to the bull case. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down sharply in after-hours trading, showing little sign of stabilization.
Nasdaq – Daily Chart
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2,231 points on Friday—a 5.5% plunge—and is now off 10% from its recent peak. This marks only the fourth time in history the Dow has lost 2,000 points in a single day, placing it into official correction territory. The index’s recent leadership was vaporized in just two sessions, with names like Boeing (BA) and 3M (MMM) sliding more than 9%, and only Nike (NKE) managing a gain.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart
The Russell 2000 shed 4.4% on Friday and is now down 17% below its 200-day moving average. The small-cap index is officially in a bear market after collapsing 9.7% for the week. Weakness in regional banks, energy, and biotech, combined with heightened volatility, has left few hiding places. The Russell’s deterioration also signals weakening confidence in domestic economic resilience.
Russell 2000 (ETF) – Daily Chart
The U.S. Dollar Index fell sharply on Thursday but stabilized slightly on Friday following comments about tariff relief from Vietnam. Still, the dollar remains near its 2024 lows as uncertainty over inflation, growth, and Fed policy clouds the outlook. The greenback’s inability to rally despite collapsing equities and rising global tension is a red flag. Safe-haven demand appears to be rotating toward precious metals and bonds.
US Dollar – Weekly Chart
WTI Crude Oil plunged 10.6% for the week to settle near $61.99 a barrel, the lowest since April 2021. The breakdown follows rising concerns over declining global demand and trade disruptions. Energy equities were hammered, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) down 10.2% and oil drillers and explorers seeing some of the steepest losses. Unless crude can reclaim the $65 level, further downside to the $57-$58 area is plausible.
Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
The TSX Composite confirmed a correction after tumbling 1,142 points or 4.7% on Friday, closing at 23,193.47—its lowest level since September 10. This marks its steepest one-day drop since March 2020. The index is now down 10% from its January 30 high.
Investors were rattled not only by the global tariff war but also by domestic job data, which revealed the Canadian economy shed 33,000 jobs in March—its first monthly decline in over three years. The weakness was compounded by sharp drops in commodity prices, with oil settling at its lowest since April 2021, dragging the energy sector down 8.7%. Gold and copper prices also slid, resulting in an 8% drop in the materials group, which includes major miners like First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO), down 11.6%.
All ten sectors of the TSX ended in the red, reflecting the global nature of the risk-off sentiment. The financials sector dropped 4.1%, and technology fell 3.7%, as Canada was not spared from the worldwide bloodbath.
TSX – Daily Chart
Copper prices tumbled sharply, aligning with fears of an industrial slowdown tied to global trade disruptions. As a bellwether of economic health, the metal’s weekly breakdown reflects growing expectations of a synchronized global slowdown. Major copper producers, including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and First Quantum, underperformed the broader market, with investors fleeing industrial commodities.
Copper – Weekly Chart
Gold emerged as one of the few relative winners last week, outperforming broader markets as investors sought protection amid rising geopolitical instability and a weakening U.S. dollar. While prices dipped on Friday—likely due to profit-taking—gold miners and physical bullion funds continue to hold strong within their intermediate-term uptrends.
With elevated inflation concerns and central banks constrained by mixed economic signals, gold remains an attractive safe haven. That said, technical attention now turns to whether price action can stabilize near its 21-day moving average or if Friday’s reversal marked a short-term exhaustion or a potential topping signal if inflation continues to come in. A decisive rebound early next week would reinforce bullish positioning, while continued downside could trigger a broader reassessment of the trend.
Gold – Daily Chart
Silver followed gold’s lead higher early in the week but suffered a sharper reversal late Friday as price action got ‘CRUSHED’, underlining its more volatile nature.
Silver – Daily Chart
This past week marked a violent turning point in global markets. What began as a tariff shock morphed into a broad-based rout, fueled by economic fears, earnings downgrades, and a collapse in confidence. The synchronized selling across asset classes—equities, commodities, and currencies—underscores the scale and seriousness of the shift. Breadth is red. Volatility is soaring. Liquidity is draining. And defensive assets are no longer immune.
While some technical setups may emerge from the wreckage, the weight of evidence demands caution. Until a follow-through day or significant reversal emerges, cash remains not just a strategy, but a position of strength. Traders and investors alike should be refining watchlists, monitoring macro data, and preparing—not predicting—the next move in a market that has decisively lost its footing.
“If you don’t manage the risk, eventually they will carry you out.” – Larry Hite
Now, onto the daily setups.
US Daily Setups
BITW – Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund
The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund seeks to track an index composed of the 10 most highly valued cryptocurrencies, weighted by market capitalization. The fund is rebalanced monthly to reflect changes in the market. The cryptocurrency market as a whole showed relative strength today as the broader indices sold off. While no clear direction is confirmed, a wedge pattern is forming—keep it on the radar for a potential directional reveal.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/gJdwEbZP
DERM – Journey Medical Corp.
Journey Medical is one of the few setups showing both absolute and relative strength today, delivering follow-through from last night’s report.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/kwhcJGhn
IBIT – iShares Bitcoin Trust Beneficial Interest
The iShares Bitcoin ETF is consolidating in the form of a potential wedge pattern, closely correlating with Bitcoin’s price action. Monitor for a push above the upper trendline, as it continues to demonstrate relative strength against the broader market.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/PkvpQwND
PFSI – PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.
PennyMac Financial is appearing on scan results as price action consolidates in the form of a potential continuation pattern. The weekly PPO momentum indicator is attempting to move higher from the zero line, suggesting a possible increase in strength.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/SFAyWrIv
RKT – Rocket Companies Inc.
Rocket Companies is a setup that continues to show strength today, moving higher amid market volatility and demonstrating robust volume. In past daily setups, I’ve highlighted the weekly chart, where price action is now starting to push above a significant horizontal resistance level, signaling a potential breakout.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/ASFqsryM
XHB – SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF isn’t showing a clear technical setup yet, though price action did reverse off the day’s low on robust volume. With interest rates continuing to fall and names like Rocket Companies showing relative strength, the homebuilders sector may be worth watching for emerging signals.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/gZmUWRUr
Canadian Daily Setups
CHP/UN.TO – Choice Properties REIT
Choice Properties REIT continues to offer a potential safe haven with its 5% yield, standing out as one of the few charts holding up in today’s market volatility. Its stability highlights continued investor interest in defensive names.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/eSDzNzik
GIP.V – Green Impact Partners Inc.
Green Impact Partners is showing signs of strength in a weak market tape, with an intriguing volume profile developing since February. This relative resilience may signal growing accumulation and potential upside.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/nuEySsnQ
NWC.TO – North West Co. Inc.
North West Co is one of the few setups continuing to show both absolute and relative strength, especially notable amid today’s broad market sell-off. Its resilience highlights sustained interest and potential leadership.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/nuEySsnQ
T.TO – TELUS Corp.
TELUS is potentially forming a significant multi-year bottoming wedge. Monitor for any signs of upward momentum that could signal a shift in trend.
LINK TO CHART – https://schrts.co/wsABViGW
To conclude our report, we thank you for your engagement and insights. Your feedback is valuable, and we encourage you to share your recommendations. Stay attentive to the Daily Setups, the Workspace, and the Watchlists for emerging opportunities. Additionally, be sure to explore the PDFs of Friday’s scan results provided below. Until next time, happy trading!
US Scanner Results
(Stocks are sorted to highlight those with the strongest momentum at the time of the scan)
Click on the CandleGlance chart to view it in full size. Find a chart that matches your criteria or interests. You can easily save it to your watchlist on StockCharts.com for further analysis and tracking or copy and paste the ticker list into your chart provider.
EXPORT – US Watchlist Scan – 2025-04-04
KOLD, GME, RKT, ZSPC, DERM, MAMA, EXOD, TDUP, NVR, BDMD, TLT, COOP, PFSI, III, VCRB, BOXX
Canadian Scanner Results
(Stocks are sorted to highlight those with the strongest momentum at the time of the scan)
Click on the CandleGlance chart to view it in full size. Find a chart that matches your criteria or interests. You can easily save it to your watchlist on StockCharts.com for further analysis and tracking or copy and paste the ticker list into your chart provider.
EXPORT – Canadian Scanner Results – 2025-04-04
DDD.V, AIAI.CA, UCU.V, LUCA.V, TH.TO, CNC.V, ZTL.NE, JWEL.TO, CHP/UN.TO, ZTS.NE, GIP.V, NWC.TO, AND.TO, T.TO, EXE.TO, PSU/U.TO
