SYS Research – Weekend Report – Sunday, September 17, 2023

Notice: The weekend report is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as a stock-picking service. The charts and information provided are intended to aid research and analysis and should only be used as indicators. They should not be considered as a direct trigger to buy or sell any security. The creator assumes no responsibility for any actions readers take and strongly advises each individual to fully understand the risks and potential consequences before making any investment decisions. Please note that the charts shared are not intended as signals to buy or sell but as a tool to add to your watchlist and analyze according to your trading ability. Remember that not all charts will result in buy or sell actions at any time.

Just a friendly reminder: The sector watchlists are updated every weekend. You may want to consider dedicating time to reviewing and creating your watchlist. Also, it’s essential to keep an eye on the Daily Setups and Workspace scan results, which can provide insights into potential future additions to stay ahead of the game.

If you’re facing challenges understanding the Daily Setups or need help crafting a trading strategy, don’t hesitate to ask for assistance. You can contact us via email at or reach me through the Workspace. Let’s schedule a Zoom meeting to address your specific requirements and provide you with the guidance you need.

SYS Daily Report – Weekend Edition

Before we delve into this weekend’s report, I want to share an important update with all our readers. Over the past two weeks, we’ve kept the website accessible to everyone to ensure a seamless transition for our valued former Osprey members as they join SetYourStop. However, starting tomorrow, access to the website will be limited to paying subscribers only. If you haven’t completed the registration process, you can easily do so by following this link. We greatly appreciate your support, and I’m excited to continue working with all of you. – CLICK HERE TO COMPLETE REGISTRATION

Market Commentary

Summary: The stock market rally showed little change last week. After reclaiming their 50-day moving averages on Thursday, the major indexes retreated on Friday as price action continued to oscillate within the confines of its triangle pattern. While a rebound is possible, it’s important to note that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are precariously close to triggering a highly bearish signal.

Friday’s ‘quadruple witching’ event injected turbulence into the market, coinciding with the quarterly reshuffling of the S&P 500 index scheduled before Monday’s market opening. The market performance revealed a notable defensive tone, with sectors like utilities, financials, and real estate demonstrating robust performance. It’s essential to monitor the ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar, which may pose a potential headwind for stocks.

On a positive note, both the price of oil and the CRB index concluded the week on an upbeat trajectory. The Uranium theme had an exceptional week, exemplified by the Global X ETF closing up nearly 9%. However, I observed some signs of exhaustion in my charts on Friday.

Notably, a new bullish sector theme appears to be emerging in the precious metals arena. The scanner results at the week’s close did not reveal significant strength, a factor that may, in part, be attributed to the occurrence of ‘quadruple witching.’

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve policymakers are slated to gather on September 19-20. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain the status quo, with an overwhelming 97% consensus expecting no changes to interest rates.

Equities: During the last week of stock market trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest 0.1% gain. Conversely, the S&P 500 index experienced a slight dip of 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite saw a marginal loss of 0.4%. Notably, all three major indices retraced below their 50-day moving averages on Friday. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 index showed a minor decline of 0.2%, hovering just above its 200-day moving average.

Currencies: On Friday, the U.S. dollar experienced a minor setback due to a drop in consumer sentiment. However, it’s worth noting that the greenback is still on course for its ninth consecutive week of gains. This winning streak stands as its longest since it achieved a 12-week run in 2014. The U.S. dollar index saw a slight dip, down 0.08% at 104.99.

The dollar’s performance against the yen has been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride, but it managed to maintain its advantage. Currently, it’s up 0.21% at 147.77 yen, and it recently hit a 10-month high.

Meanwhile, the euro staged a comeback, showing a 0.24% increase at $1.066. This recovery followed Thursday’s dip to a six-month low of $1.0629, triggered by the European Central Bank’s policy announcement. The ECB raised rates to a record-high 4% but hinted that it might pause its rate hikes for the time being.

On the other hand, sterling faced a minor setback, down 0.2% at $1.238. It’s important to keep in mind that the Bank of England is also scheduled to make a policy announcement next week.

Bonds: Treasury yields wrapped up the week on a strong note, registering their second consecutive weekly increase. The yield on the 2-year Treasury saw a modest uptick of 1.9 basis points, closing at 5.02% from Thursday’s 5.011%. Over the week, it experienced a gain of 4.8 basis points. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed by 3.2 basis points, reaching 4.33% compared to Thursday’s 4.29%. This week, it recorded a notable rise of 6.4 basis points. In the case of the 30-year Treasury, its yield advanced by 2.6 basis points, settling at 4.42% from late Thursday’s 4.384%. Remarkably, this marks the second consecutive weekly gain for all three rates, signifying the current trend in Treasury yields as the month came to a close.

Commodities: In the commodities market, notable gains were observed across various assets. Gold marked a 0.69% increase, reaching $1,946, while silver surged by 1.70% to $23.39. Copper demonstrated robust growth, advancing by 2.27% to reach $3.80, while crude oil recorded a significant gain of 2.87%, climbing to $90.02. Natural gas experienced a rise of 1.50%, reaching $2.64, and uranium showcased strength, trading at $65.75. Lumber prices also saw an uptick, with a gain of 1.12% to $499.09. Overall, the CRB Commodities Index reflected positive momentum, closing the period with a gain of 1.80% at 289.61.

Conclusion: The weekend provides a valuable opportunity to engage in thorough research and prepare strategically for the week ahead. This is a time to prepare watchlists and be cautious rather than forcing trades. One should aim to trade when the odds are in their favor and remain flexible, avoiding a fixed bullish or bearish bias. Market conditions can change rapidly, so one must adapt to make the most informed trading decisions. For now, the market appears to be stuck in a sideways and choppy range with potential opportunities still in commodities. It’s important to await further clues before committing to a directional bias. It’s worth remembering that the market often surprises the majority. When a consensus opinion prevails among the majority, it’s frequently challenged by market dynamics, as the market consistently has a knack for hurting the most people as it catches them off guard. This is an aspect worthy of close observation.

S&P 500 – Weekly Chart

The price action of the S&P 500 is trading within a range, oscillating between the upper and lower trendlines of the continuation triangle we’ve been monitoring. Volatility remains prevalent as price action fluctuates above and below the 50-day moving average. It’s important to note that I do not engage in forecasting tops or bottoms, as history has shown that such endeavors have led to making smart people look really stupid.

Additionally, I avoid projecting breakouts or breakdowns, as the market’s direction remains uncertain while price action continues to chop around. A prudent approach at this juncture is to adopt a wait-and-see stance. It’s crucial not to let external influences or individuals with perceived superior knowledge bias one’s perspective. Such biases can lead to confirmation bias, where one searches for patterns that align with their preconceived notions rather than objectively assessing the chart’s behavior.

S&P 500 – Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the price action is closely focused on the triangle defined by two well-established trendlines. Currently, the price remains within a sideways and choppy range, waiting for a clear signal to emerge – green light above the upper trendline, red light below the lower trendline. This binary approach eliminates guesswork and safeguards against undue biases.

Traders and investors manage two forms of capital: financial capital in their accounts and mental capital in their minds. This binary approach helps protect their mental capital from the influence of media pundits, who are often prone to inaccuracies.

Nasdaq 100 – Weekly Chart

The analysis for the NASDAQ aligns closely with the S&P 500, as the charts exhibit a strong resemblance.

Russell 2000 (ETF) – Weekly Chart

The small-cap Russell 2000 continues to consolidate within its bottoming base pattern, maintaining its position above the 40-week moving average, which also aligns with the 200-day moving average on the daily chart. A directional move is yet to be revealed.

TSX – Weekly Chart

The TSX has shown resilience against the prevailing market trend, closing positively. Price action is persistently challenging a breakout from the consolidation pattern that has been a recurring highlight. It’s noteworthy that the weekly PPO momentum indicator is attempting to move higher, rising off the zero line. At this moment, the price action exhibits a bullish momentum, suggesting a potential imminent breakout.

Additionally, pay attention to the substantial volume by price bar on the left side of the chart, indicating significant accumulation and distribution within this area of the pattern. Stay tuned.

US Dollar – Weekly Chart

The U.S. Dollar concluded the week with minimal fluctuations as price action continued to consolidate above the breakout line of the pattern we’ve been emphasizing.

Below, you’ll find a second chart illustrating the inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 over the past two years. It’s evident that the U.S. dollar often serves as a significant headwind for stocks. This underscores the importance of monitoring the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar, as it can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of the S&P 500.

Bond Yields

In the latest U.S. economic updates, the New York Empire State manufacturing index rebounded in September, posting a reading of 1.9. This positive development was driven by notable increases in new orders and shipments, signaling a robust manufacturing sector. Additionally, U.S. industrial production outperformed expectations, showing a solid 0.4% growth rate for August. On the trade front, the cost of imported goods surged, marking its most substantial increase in 15 months, primarily attributed to elevated oil prices. Despite the decline in consumer sentiment for the second consecutive month in September, it’s important to highlight that Americans maintain an expectation of a slowdown in inflation.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the forthcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. While the probability of a rate hike remains exceedingly low, the central bank will unveil its updated economic outlook and interest rate projections. Treasury yields closed the week on a strong note, securing their second consecutive weekly gain. The 2-year Treasury yield experienced a modest uptick of 1.9 basis points, concluding at 5.03% compared to Thursday’s 5.011%. Over the course of the week, it witnessed an increase of 4.8 basis points. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield saw a notable rise of 3.2 basis points, reaching 4.321% in contrast to Thursday’s 4.289%, marking a substantial gain of 6.4 basis points during the week. The 30-year Treasury yield also progressed by 2.6 basis points, settling at 4.410% from late Thursday’s 4.384%. Notably, this marks the second consecutive week of gains for all three rates, underscoring the prevailing trend in Treasury yields as the month drew to a close.

10-Year US Treasury Yield

The 10-year Treasury concluded the week on an upward trajectory once again. If we were to analyze this as we would a stock chart, the setup appears remarkably bullish, primed for an upward movement. Notably, the price action has consistently formed higher lows and now seems poised to break out from a multi-month basing pattern. Furthermore, the weekly PPO momentum indicator continues its ascent, signaling robust positive momentum.

It’s crucial to stay attentive because a breakout from this pattern could potentially act as a significant headwind for equities. A breakout in the 10-year yield, coupled with continued strength in the U.S. dollar, is not aligned with the bulls’ interests.

CRB Index – Weekly Chart

The CRB index remains on an upward trajectory, consistently trading above the 10-week moving average—a pattern we’ve been diligently tracking. This bullish trend is further substantiated by the weekly PPO momentum indicator crossing above the zero line and the ongoing outperformance relative to the S&P 500.

This chart serves as an exemplary illustration of the setups we endeavor to spotlight. It exhibits a clear breakout in price action from a substantial consolidation pattern, complemented by its steadfast position above a key resistance line and the accompanying moving average. Furthermore, it underscores the vital role of the 10-week moving average, equivalent to the 50-day moving average on the daily chart, as a dynamic trendline. This moving average offers a precise reference point for defining potential downside risk.

One notable advantage of employing moving averages in technical analysis is their objectivity. They eliminate subjectivity and personal interpretation when delineating trendlines, ensuring a consistent and impartial analytical approach.

Crude Oil – Weekly Chart

The crude oil chart continues to mirror the analysis of the CRB index. As the saying goes, ‘Trend is your friend’ until it’s not.

Copper – Weekly Chart

The copper chart remains within the apex of its consolidation pattern, displaying a mix of bullish and bearish signals from week to week. This chart serves as a compelling example of the need to avoid preconceived biases and attempts to predict its movements. Attempting to forecast price action in this chart over the past couple of months would have resulted in significant volatility.

Instead, this chart continues to present opportunities in a ‘green light, red light’ fashion. A move above or below one of the well-defined trendlines will offer crucial directional clues.

Uranium Theme – Global X Uranium ETF

The Uranium theme had an outstanding week, with the Global X ETF closing up nearly 9%. Those who entered this trade when we initially highlighted it in July should now be enjoying significant profits. However, I observed some signs of exhaustion in my charts on Friday.

While I don’t engage in predicting market tops because trends can persist longer than anticipated, it may be prudent for those sitting on substantial profits to consider implementing some form of safeguard. Having a financial advisor is crucial in this regard, as risk profiles vary from person to person. Implementing a stop-loss order or devising a profit-taking strategy could be wise, but these strategies should be tailored to individual circumstances.

What Worked Last Week

Upon reviewing last week’s market performance, a notable defensive tone emerged, with sectors like utilities, financials, and real estate exhibiting strong performance. However, this was juxtaposed with the performance of the discretionary sector.

This highlights a common cognitive bias where individuals often seek information that confirms their preexisting opinions. Market pundits who consistently predict a market top may interpret these indicators as supporting evidence. Yet, it’s crucial not to overlook the impending event known as ‘quadruple witching,’ which occurred this Friday.

‘Quadruple witching’ signifies the expiration of a significant volume of derivatives contracts, encompassing options linked to individual stocks and major indexes. These derivatives are indispensable tools for investors, aiding in risk management and speculative trading.

Historically, such events have injected higher levels of market volatility and the potential for unexpected price fluctuations. Moreover, this Friday coincided with the quarterly reshuffling of the S&P 500 index, slated to occur before Monday’s market opening.

The convergence of these factors often ushers in substantial market volatility. Thus, it is wise to adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach, observing the developments of the upcoming week before forming any rigid opinions. Let us prioritize the observation of price action, which serves as the ultimate binary signal amidst the cacophony of market noise.

While it is indeed prudent to exercise caution, it is equally crucial to acknowledge that the cycle chart provided indicates that utilities, financials, and REITs may not be the most reliable indicators of an ongoing uptrend. To navigate these complexities effectively, we must remain vigilant and attentive to the ‘quadruple witching’ event, avoiding any hasty embrace of bearish sentiment.

Potential Sector Theme – Precious Metals

Link – Precious Metals Watchlist

GOLD – Daily Chart

The price action in the gold market is currently giving rise to a substantial continuation pattern, featuring a prominent double bottom formation off the 200-day moving average. Notably, the volume by price bars indicates significant accumulation within this pattern. It’s essential to maintain a close watch for potential signs of upward momentum, which could culminate in a breakout from this bullish configuration.

At this juncture, the precious metals theme holds considerable potential. A breakout above the resistance line would serve as a strong bullish signal, potentially heralding the emergence of a new sector theme. Vigilance is key, as we should remain keenly observant for any indications of breakouts from these patterns.

For ongoing monitoring, please refer to the provided watchlist link, and stay tuned for updates.

SILVER – Daily Chart

The price action in silver is currently rebounding from the lower trendline within a consolidation phase, forming a triangle pattern. It’s important to monitor whether price action sustains its upside momentum as we move into the upcoming week.

AGI – Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold appears to be in a consolidation phase, taking the shape of a continuation pattern with the price action curling higher off the 200-day moving average. Monitor the stock for any signs of upward momentum that may indicate the potential for a breakout in the future.

FNV – Franco-Nevada Corp.

Franco-Nevada is currently positioned below the horizontal resistance line of a falling wedge pattern. It warrants close monitoring for any potential breakout.

GDX – VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is currently in a strategic position, situated beneath a substantial volume by price resistance line and the upper trendline of a falling channel. Watch for any indications of upward momentum, which may pave the way for a potential breakout.

GDXJ – VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF

The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is presently engaged in a consolidation phase, adopting the structure of a falling wedge pattern. Monitor for any signs of upward momentum that could lead to a potential breakout.

KGC – Kinross Gold Corp.

Kinross Gold is currently establishing itself on the right side of a notable bottoming base formation. Keep a watchful eye for potential breakout signals.

WPM – Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.

Wheaton Precious Metals is in the process of attempting to break out from a falling wedge continuation pattern positioned below a horizontal resistance line.

Sector Watchlist Highlights: Weekend Chart Setups

Now, let’s explore the setup section of the newsletter. The scanner results at the close of the week did not exhibit significant strength. It’s worth noting that this outcome could be influenced, in part, by the occurrence of ‘quadruple witching.’ As a reminder, our sector watchlists receive updates every weekend. It’s encouraged to review and create your own watchlist based on these updates. Additionally, it’s worth noting that keeping an eye on the Daily Setups and Workspace scan results can provide insights into potential future additions that may offer a competitive edge in the market.

In this segment of the weekly report, setups from each watchlist are showcased, indicating potential momentum. You’ll find a link to each sector watchlist for reference. It’s important to consider that setups may not always be immediately evident, particularly for sectors that are currently out of favor. This is because sector correlations can fluctuate with shifts in overall market sentiment, resulting in weeks when notable setups may not be present.

Canadian Energy

Link – Canadian Energy Watchlist

SU.TO – Suncor Energy, Inc.

Suncor Energy is currently positioned below new highs. Keep an eye on this stock for a breakout that can surpass all overhead resistance.


WCP.TO – Whitecap Resources Inc.

Whitecap Resources is currently showing an attempt to trend higher, aiming to reach new 52-week highs emerging from a flagging pattern.



Communication Services

Link – Communication Services Watchlist

GOOGL – Alphabet Inc.

Alphabet is persistently trending above its moving averages amongst the market noise. This chart serves as a testament to the value of following the trend, while also highlighting the importance of recognizing when the trend may change. As the old saying goes, ‘The trend will be a friend until the one time it’s not.’




Link – Copper Watchlist

COPX – Global X Copper Miners ETF

The Global X Copper Miners ETF is currently consolidating within a basing pattern situated below its all-time highs, while the weekly PPO momentum indicator tests the zero line. With price action confined to a narrow range on the right side of the chart, it could be a prudent course of action to include this on a watchlist and monitor for any indications of potential upside momentum that could result in a breakout.


FM.TO – First Quantum Minerals Ltd.

First Quantum Materials is currently in consolidation, forming a continuation triangle along the recent breakout line. Keep a close watch for a potential breakout from this pattern, as it may signify a continuation of the existing uptrend.


TECK – Teck Resources Ltd.

Tech Resources is currently making an attempt to trend higher, emerging from a consolidation wedge.




Link – Financial Watchlist

JPM – J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

J.P. Morgan has recently executed a successful retest of the recent breakout, forming a continuation wedge pattern. Currently, the price action is positioned between the underside of the 50-day moving average and above the 21-day exponential moving average. Monitor this situation closely to determine if the price can surpass the 50-day moving average and regain momentum.


XP – XP Inc

XP has reached the apex of a bullish ascending triangle continuation pattern, positioned just below new highs. Keep a close watch for a potential breakout.




Link – Industrial Watchlist

BWXT – BWX Technologies, Inc.

BWX Technologies is currently breaking above the upper trendline and horizontal resistance of a continuation triangle pattern, with its price positioned below recent highs. Notably, this chart illustrates the dual role of moving averages as trendlines. Observe how the yellow line aligns with the lower trendline of the continuation triangle. Be vigilant in monitoring for potential signs of a continuation of the uptrend.


CAT – Caterpillar, Inc.

Caterpillar is currently in consolidation mode, positioned just below new highs. This chart presents a ‘red light, green light’ scenario. A price movement above the upper resistance line indicates a potential continuation of the uptrend, marked as a ‘green light.’ Conversely, a breakdown below the support line, which previously served as the breakout line, would be a ‘red light.’ This support line also exemplifies the adage that ‘what was once resistance will now become support.’

One can observe how back in July, this support line acted as resistance while price action consolidated above the 21-day exponential moving average but below that line. Once the price broke out, this line transformed into a support level, serving as a safety net to define risk and act as a stop-loss order.




Link – Materials Watchlist

XME – SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF

SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF is consolidating within a tightening range on the right side of a multi-year continuation pattern. This aligns with the technical concept that periods of low volatility are often succeeded by periods of high volatility. Hence, I focus on charts that exhibit tight consolidation on the right side of a basing pattern. When price action consolidates within a narrow range, it suggests a decrease in volatility.

A breakout from the apex of the pattern can lead to a transition into high volatility, which often generates momentum as the price begins to break out. Monitor this chart of a potential breakout.




Link – Software Watchlist

COIN – Coinbase Global Inc.

Coinbase is exhibiting positive momentum as its price action begins to ascend above a wedge pattern, which is currently retesting the recent bottom base breakout. The price action is currently sandwiched between the underside of the 50-day moving average and above the 21-day exponential moving average. It could be prudent to include this chart in your watchlist and observe closely to ascertain if the price can reclaim both the 50-day moving average and the horizontal resistance line.


CWAN – Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc.

Clearwater Analytics is currently forming a bull flag continuation pattern, positioned just below its recent highs. Monitor this stock for a potential breakout.




Link – Staples Watchlist

SFM – Sprouts Farmers Market Inc.

Sprouts Farmers Market continues its upward trajectory from the lower left to the upper right of the chart. Currently, the price action is pressing against the underside of a horizontal resistance line, which leads to new 52-week highs. Keep a close watch for a potential continuation of this uptrend.


USFD – US Foods Holding Corp.

US Foods has recently successfully tested the 200-day moving average, forming a continuation wedge pattern. Currently, the price action is confined within the bounds of horizontal resistance and the upper trendline of this pattern. It’s important to monitor the situation closely for a potential breakout, as it could signify the continuation of the ongoing uptrend.




Link – Technology Watchlist

AFRM – Affirm Holdings Inc.

Affirm is exhibiting signs of a notable breakthrough above the horizontal resistance line within a significant bottoming base pattern. It might be prudent to include this stock in your watchlist and maintain monitoring to ascertain whether this marks the inception of a potential new uptrend.


ESE – Esco Technologies, Inc.

ESCO Technologies is exhibiting an upward trend on the chart, moving from the lower left to the upper right. The price action is currently positioned just below a significant horizontal resistance line near its 52-week highs. Monitoring this stock for a potential continuation of the uptrend could be worthwhile.


To bring our weekend report to a close, we thank you for your engagement and insights. Your feedback is of great value, and we encourage you to share your recommendations. Stay attentive to the Daily Setup, the Workspace, and the Watchlists for emerging opportunities. Until next time, happy trading!

SetYourStop Blog Request

Enter your name and email to be alerted with new ideas.

Please wait...

Thank you for sign up!

Scroll to Top